EXPERIMENTresearch

Open-Weight Models

Which jobs need a generative model, which need a decision model, and which need neither. Qwen and Gemma on the Mac, Kimi over its API, and Jev-style decision models like Laya for the judgment calls.

CREATED JUL 4, 2026 · UPDATED OCT 31, 2026

PROBLEM

Every local-model writeup asks which model is best. That is the wrong question. Most of what I hand a model is either a judgment between a few options, which does not need text generation at all, or plumbing that does not need a model. The interesting question is the split.

HYPOTHESIS

Three buckets. Generative work (drafting, coding, explaining) still goes to a big hosted model, or a mid-size open-weight one when it can stay on the machine. Judgment work (classify this, pick one of these, is this a yes) goes to a decision model that returns an answer and a calibrated confidence in one forward pass. Everything else goes to code. Getting the buckets right should cut cost and latency more than picking a better chat model ever would.

ARCHITECTURE

Ollama runs the open-weight generative models locally: Qwen and Gemma. Kimi's weights are open, but at roughly a trillion parameters it is not a laptop model, so it runs through the vendor's API, which is the honest middle category of open weights with hosted inference. The decision side uses Jev-style models, which Ollama now runs alongside chat models: Laya, a small encoder that answers choice, score and yes/no questions with a probability attached. The hosted half started as the AI Gateway probe in this repo's experiments folder and has since moved to T3 Code, which drives several subscriptions from one place.

STACK

OllamaQwenGemmaKimiLayaT3 CodeVercel AI Gateway

RESULT

Running. Two findings so far. The hosted wall was entitlement, not authentication: on Vercel AI Gateway, OIDC alone authenticated cleanly, the smallest model answered at once, and the bigger ones came back 403 (not allowed) or 429 (allowed, throttled), which are opposite answers that most code treats as one. And the decision models are the sleeper: a few hundred million parameters that return a number are a better fit for the judgment step in an automation than a chat model asked to say yes or no.

MEASURED

metricvaluebaseline
models reachable through the gateway327 · catalogue call, authenticated on OIDC alone-
API keys required on the gateway01 per provider without it

LEARNINGS

  • 403 and 429 are not the same answer. One will never clear by waiting; the other might.
  • Open weights and local inference are different properties. A model can have the first without the second.

TAGS

local-inferenceopen-weightsdecision-modelsollama